Safi Ahsan
Rizvi
Analysing risk and advising resilience at the intersection of national security, climate security, geo-economics and strategic thought.
Explore my work
A career at the intersection of security, policy & discourse
- Extra-Ordinary Intelligence Services Medal (2018)
- President’s Police Medal (2013)
- Police Medal for Meritorious Services (2006)
Safi Ahsan Rizvi is an ex-IPS officer (1989 batch), an alumnus of IIM Ahmedabad, and is now a risk analyst. He has over three and a half decades of senior government experience in policing, intelligence, and disaster management, complemented by a strong grounding in economics and finance.
His primary experience is in national security, having worked 18 years in senior positions in the Intelligence Bureau. His specialisation was in geo-economics, emerging technology and countering terror financing.
Most recently, he served as Advisor at India's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) for about 3 years, providing policy prescriptions on disaster risk reduction across diverse natural hazards and geographies, with a particular emphasis on technological innovation, risk finance, risk insurance, mitigation, adaptation, preparedness, and reconstruction.
He hosts his own Substack and podcast, both named 'Risk and Resilience', and has published analytical writing across several platforms and newspapers, on national security, climate risk, geopolitics, and geo-economics, amongst several other subjects.
Risk and Resilience
Co-produced with Policy Perspectives Foundation
Analysis built for the long view
Articles and research pieces on national security, regional chokepoints, and climate policy.
Read the Lake, or Lose the Valley
India has 7,500 Himalayan glacial lakes; 195 are high-risk. Warming accelerates avalanches, seepage, and dam failures — as South Lhonak proved in 2023, destroying a 1,200 MW dam. NDMA's NGRMP and CoDRR now coordinate states and scientists on the ground. Mitigation exists: solar pumps, siphoning, retention structures. The lake must be read before it bursts.
India’s Invisible Drought: How Slow-Onset Risk Escapes the System
A deficient monsoon in a year of already thin reservoirs is not just a weather story. It is a stress test of how India counts, declares and mitigates drought—and of how we manage the slow-onset risks we no longer see.
China’s Jet Engine Gamble and the End of Washington’s Aviation Lever
China’s civil jet engine programmes still depend on foreign certification, but its WS-series military turbofan engines have already broken through those constraints.
Comprehensive field-based hazard assessment and mitigation strategies of glacial lakes in the Eastern Himalaya
Impact of NDMA's CoDRR (Committee on DRR). This is one of the first multi‑lake, multi‑disciplinary, field‑based hazard assessments of nine high‑risk glacial lakes in Sikkim’s Eastern Himalaya, going beyond satellite‑only studies. It combines bathymetry, geophysics, morphometry, and hydro‑meteorological monitoring to measure lake volumes, detect saturated or ice‑cored moraines, map outlets and avalanche sites, and track lake‑level and climate signals.
G2 Cold War Over Strategic Minerals
The G2 Cold War. China controls critical mineral and rare earth refining, using its supply and demand as a substitute for hard power. The US leads a fledgling global coalition for import substitution.
Selected Media Appearances
"Overview of DRR Committee on Space"
"West Asia Flares Up"
"𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮"
"Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas"
"National Workshop on Space Technology in DM "
"Iran-US/Israel War"
Bringing strategic clarity to high-stakes conversations
Available for panels, keynotes, and moderated discussions on disaster management, Eurasian security corridors, and climate adaptation structures.
No speaking events scheduled yet.